Creative Innovation 2019 (Ci2019)

Exponential versus Linear Thinking by Raymond Kurzweil

Friday, 16 September 2011

“In the 21st century we won’t experience one hundred years of progress—we will experience 20,000 years of progress at today’s rate.” – Ray Kurzweil

By 2020, we will have the means to program our biology away from disease and aging.  Three-dimensional molecular computing will provide the hardware for human-level “strong” artificial intelligence well before 2030.  By the time we get to the 2040s, we will be able to multiply human intelligence a billion fold.  Computers will keep shrinking until ultimately, they will go inside our bodies and brains to make us healthier and smarter.

Consider how much the world has changed recently.  Just a few years ago, people did not use social networks (Facebook, for example, was founded in 2004 and now has over 500 million active users), wikis, blogs, or tweets. Most people did not use search engines or cell phones in the 1990s.  Imagine the world without these. That sounds like ancient history, but that was not so long ago. The world will change even more in the near future.

The landscape is changing exponentially.  If you are unaware of the rate of change in emerging technologies (artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, biotechnology, robotics, embedded computing) you will inevitably miss opportunities to leverage these technologies.  Traditional linear thinking will cause the demise of companies unable to cope with the coming decades of disruptive innovation.

It is feasible to predict precisely the capabilities of each form of information technology in future periods and to factor these projections into entrepreneurial plans.  Plotting the basic measures of the price to performance and capacity of information technologies they follow produces remarkably smooth — and foreseeable — trajectories. What’s predictable is that these measures grow exponentially, not linearly, though our intuition about the future is linear. This makes a tremendous difference. Thirty steps linearly get you to thirty, whereas thirty steps exponentially get you to a billion.

Exponentials seem slow at first.  The genome project was controversial because half-way through the fifteen-year project we had succeeded in collecting only one percent of the human genome.  But that is actually right on schedule for an exponential progression.  If you double one percent seven more times – which is exactly what happened – you get 100 percent. So the project was done on time.  This is why people persistently underestimate what is feasible in long periods of time.  People think linearly whereas the actual course of progress is exponential.

Disruptive Convergence inspires executives and strategic decision-makers to contemplate the future through an exponential lens to illuminate trends that are creating new industries and destroying traditional static companies.


"Without a doubt the best conference in Australia with a delightful mix of creativity and big thinking bringing together an eclectic group of industry, community and education leaders. Once again, I’ve come away enthused by new ideas, more aware of future trends, and heartened by the kindness of humanity. We all have a role to play and it should be a collective one." Kerry Anderson, Founder of Operation Next Gen

"Conferences are boring. Creative Innovation is more like a rodeo for ideas, and you are guaranteed to leave wanting to make the world better for everyone." Andrew Despi, A.kin

"Kudos to Tania for organising the the 2019 CI Conference in Melbourne - it is the best I have attended so far. All the speakers and sessions were very well-planned. I have attended many conferences and this is the first I did not have the 'luxury' to skip any sessions. Your effort in this space has truly made Melbourne a global innovation and entrepreneurship hub." Danny Ong, Deakin University

"I wanted to pass along how incredible I thought Creative Innovation was and how much your passion for life and for humanity was inspiring to all of us. It was a privilege to be included and one that I am very grateful for." John Pickering, Chief Behavioural Scientist

"Creative Innovation is a transformational platform built by changemakers for changemakers. It is an educational adventure showcasing the forefront of ideas internationally." Melissa Warner, Ci2019 Scholarship Winner & Education Officer, Mind Medicine Australia

"Creative Innovation 2019 was one of the most well-organised events I’ve ever taken part in. From beginning to the end, every detail had been planned through and taken care of. Secondly, are the production values. As a result, it was possible to attend all the sessions without suffering conference burn-out, happy in the knowledge that the next piece of content was guaranteed to delight and challenge the senses." Richard Claydon (Singapore)

"Well done on another successful Ci conference. Your energy, passion and sheer determination to ensure the conference delegates get a fantastic experience is admirable." VP People & Global Capability | P&GC, Woodside Energy


There are a host of incredible opportunities to partner with us on this world class innovation event. If you are interested in becoming a partner or creative collaborator for the upcoming conference, please contact:

Tania de Jong AM // Founder and Executive Producer
Tel: +61 (0)3 8679 6000

Alrick Pagnon
Tel: +61 (0)3 8679 6000

“Remarkable, mind blowing, brilliantly choreographed – easily the best conference ever and I’ve been to plenty. Truly wonderful and amazing.”

Jim Grant, Partner, Dattner Grant

“Thank you for a challenging and rewarding couple of days. The quality of the team you had at the conference was extraordinary! These events will change people and thereby the world.”

Craig Carolan, Director Private Wealth, ANZ

“I came to learn – I came away inspired! Best conference ever.”

Paul Duldig, University of Melbourne