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Thought Pieces
Ray Kurzweil TED Talk – Singularity University
Friday, 16 September 2011
Exponential versus Linear Thinking by Raymond Kurzweil
Friday, 16 September 2011
“In the 21st century we won’t experience one hundred years of progress—we will experience 20,000 years of progress at today’s rate.” – Ray Kurzweil
By 2020, we will have the means to program our biology away from disease and aging. Three-dimensional molecular computing will provide the hardware for human-level “strong” artificial intelligence well before 2030. By the time we get to the 2040s, we will be able to multiply human intelligence a billion fold. Computers will keep shrinking until ultimately, they will go inside our bodies and brains to make us healthier and smarter.
Consider how much the world has changed recently. Just a few years ago, people did not use social networks (Facebook, for example, was founded in 2004 and now has over 500 million active users), wikis, blogs, or tweets. Most people did not use search engines or cell phones in the 1990s. Imagine the world without these. That sounds like ancient history, but that was not so long ago. The world will change even more in the near future.
The landscape is changing exponentially. If you are unaware of the rate of change in emerging technologies (artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, biotechnology, robotics, embedded computing) you will inevitably miss opportunities to leverage these technologies. Traditional linear thinking will cause the demise of companies unable to cope with the coming decades of disruptive innovation.
It is feasible to predict precisely the capabilities of each form of information technology in future periods and to factor these projections into entrepreneurial plans. Plotting the basic measures of the price to performance and capacity of information technologies they follow produces remarkably smooth — and foreseeable — trajectories. What’s predictable is that these measures grow exponentially, not linearly, though our intuition about the future is linear. This makes a tremendous difference. Thirty steps linearly get you to thirty, whereas thirty steps exponentially get you to a billion.
Exponentials seem slow at first. The genome project was controversial because half-way through the fifteen-year project we had succeeded in collecting only one percent of the human genome. But that is actually right on schedule for an exponential progression. If you double one percent seven more times – which is exactly what happened – you get 100 percent. So the project was done on time. This is why people persistently underestimate what is feasible in long periods of time. People think linearly whereas the actual course of progress is exponential.
Disruptive Convergence inspires executives and strategic decision-makers to contemplate the future through an exponential lens to illuminate trends that are creating new industries and destroying traditional static companies.
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Daniel Dennett on human consciousness
Friday, 9 September 2011
“Human consciousness is just about the last surviving mystery. A mystery is a phenomenon that people don’t know how to think about – yet. There have been other great mysteries: the mystery of the origin of the universe, the mystery of life and reproduction, the mystery of the design to be found in nature, the mysteries of time, space, and gravity. These were not just areas of scientific ignorance, but of utter bafflement and wonder. We do not yet have all the answers to any of the questions of cosmology and particle physics, molecular genetics and evolutionary theory, but we do know how to think about them …. With consciousness, however, we are still in a terrible muddle. Consciousness stands alone today as a topic that often leaves even the most sophisticated thinkers tongue-tied and confused. And, as with all of the earlier mysteries, there are many who insist — and hope — that there will never be a demystification of consciousness.”
— Daniel C. Dennett (Consciousness Explained)
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‘Whole-body aptosis’ – By Daniel C. Dennett, Artifact Vol 1 Issue 4
Thursday, 1 September 2011
In order to minimize the prolonged debility of old age, we should be designed to die abruptly andpainlessly at some randomly determined time between 85 and 90 years old. This might help ustrade the goal of living for as long as possible with the goal of living as well as possible.
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The Most Important Leadership Quality for CEOs? Creativity – Fast Company, 2010
Monday, 22 August 2011
For CEOs, creativity is now the most important leadership quality for success in business, outweighing even integrity and global thinking, according to a new study by IBM. The study is the largest known sample of one-on-one CEO interviews, with over 1,500 corporate heads and public sector leaders across 60 nations and 33 industries polled on what drives them in managing their companies in today’s world.
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“Strategies for creative leadership and innovation in your organisation” Tania de Jong AM Founder and CEO, Creative Universe and Creative Innovation Global
Monday, 15 August 2011
Creativity fosters innovation, but how can you ignite creative sparks within your organisation? Your own employees are an inexpensive and efficient source of creative new ideas and innovation. How can you unleash the creative spirit within your workforce? There are a number of ways to build a vibrant research and development strategy in your organisation without spending a fortune.
Here are a few strategies:
- Every employee is a potential designer of a new idea and just needs the opportunity to be heard. Do not restrict creativity and innovation to your R & D or marketing area. We are all creative.
- Ask lots of questions…what if? Why? Why not? Imagine if? Allow your people to imagine new possibilities.
- To bring together great ideas utilise cloud-based software that allows sharing and development to occur anytime, anywhere
- Provide opportunities for reflection, retreat and problem solving so that good ideas will emerge
- Encourage risk-taking. Failure is part of all innovation. People need to feel safe to try and fail and then try again.
- Host a scholarship program to incentivise innovation within the organisation and also to attract new talent from outside
- Reward brilliant ideas – eg. with tickets to innovation conferences, holidays, shares and equity where appropriate
- Innovation occurs from diversity. Bring together the most diverse teams possible to solve your biggest challenges.
- Allow people time to invent new ideas eg. Google’s 20% time or Intuit 10% time.
Be known as an organisation that fosters creativity and innovation through diversity, openness and respect of courageous new ideas. Be an organisation that recognises creativity as the strategic tool of the 21st Century. Companies that fail to innovate now will not be around in 5 to 10 years. It’s worth the risk – get creative!
Contact Creative Universe enquiries@creativeuniverse.com.au to develop a custom-designed creative and innovation leadership program suited to your business challenges and desired outcomes.
Attend Creative Innovation 2011 www.ci2011.com.au and learn about the challenges and opportunities of a super-connected world with Edward de Bono, Raymond Kurzweil, Daniel Dennett and 25 other world class thinkers and innovators.
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